You Are a Cheat

You are a cheat and a fraud if you say that you are not afraid of the uncertainties of life. You are deceiving yourself if you keep making such a statement. Do you want to know why I am saying this? Please read the post fully to know.

A few years back, I attended a seminar in which a few experts delivered lectures on management topics. One of the experts remarked, "Entrepreneurship is more about eliminating risks than about taking them." I wanted to shout at the top of my voice that he was talking nonsense. But I refrained from doing it because decency demanded that I should not behave like that in public. But his statement triggered a few thoughts in my mind forcing me to delve more into the topic. I found a few interesting things when I dug deep into it. 

A question that may haunt the minds of people and more particularly, entrepreneurs.

"What will happen if we face failure in this?" Almost all the people will have this question in their minds before they take up a new task. Let me take the example of entrepreneurs because in general, it is they who invest hugely in whatever they do. Almost all the entrepreneurs, while launching a new product or service, or while making a big announcement about their new venture, are likely to have the above question in their minds. Of course, they may have done their research before coming out with their new ideas and plans. But the initial exhilaration and euphoria are heady drugs the stimulating effects of which do not last long. So, after some time, apprehensions start creeping into their minds. These doubts become more insistent and pronounced in due course of time. That is the reason weak-minded entrepreneurs develop cold feet and stop going ahead with their plans.

Even if you are a strong-willed entrepreneur, the uncertainty may make you wonder if the future will be as you have thought it to be or if it would be otherwise. You may also wonder if the risks are worth taking. Not just you, even the so-called geniuses in the entrepreneurial world will admit that they have faced similar situations and have been afraid of uncertainties before a new launch, be it a product or service or a new line of business. According to them, there is no fool-proof system to know if a new launch will be a success or not.

As Gary John Bishop, a famous author puts it, “Success is never certain. It never comes without risk. Even if you’re the smartest or the hardest working, there’s no guarantee of anything. The people who go on to do great things in their lives know this. They also embrace it......They didn’t succeed because they were certain they were going to succeed; they succeeded because they didn’t let uncertainty stop them.”

Precisely put, successful people are aware that they have to take uncertainty in their stride and embrace it as they do with innovations. They even go a step further and call uncertainty "the evil twin-sibling" of any new idea. But they look for every way to derive optimal benefits out of the uncertain situation. 

Leveraging the uncertainty is the only way.

Day in and day out, changes in the technological sphere have been happening at an unimaginable speed and so, it is not a surprise that business models suddenly vanish into oblivion. This means entrepreneurs have to learn how they can leverage the changes and the uncertainties that accompany them and unlock their benefits, whatever may be the odds or risks that are a part of those uncertainties.

What is the major difference between uncertainty and risk?

In uncertainty, there is not even a shade of certainty. This does not mean that you will certainly fail. On the contrary, in risks, you can use the Theory of Probability and know the chances of success or failure. Frank Knight, a popular economist, who authored the book "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit," corroborates this fact also. For example, when you pick out a card from a deck, you will not be able to rightly predict which card will come to your hand. But Probability Theory will help you in knowing the chances.

The truth is without embracing uncertainty, you cannot accomplish anything. You will not realize your potential at all. Jonathan Fields, who authored the book, "Uncertainty: Turning Fear and Doubt into Fuel for Brilliance," also says, “If everything is known and certain, that means it’s all been done before. And creation isn’t about repetition.”

Uncertainty provides a large scope for failure and obscurity. So, you will be confronting the challenge of using your innovative ability to come out with great ideas that can eliminate the chances of failure. This means you should develop your resilience to adapt like a chameleon because circumstances can change so drastically and at a great speed. Only then, you can withstand the impact of Tsunami-like waves of changes. How can you reach the top if you wilt under the impact of such changes?.

Of course, this can be both bewildering and overwhelming. That is why not many have the courage or the mental strength to take risks. Though a few experts opine that you have to minimize risks, the problem with this suggestion is that by doing so, you will miss several great opportunities. So, instead of trying to minimize risks, you should learn to identify and foresee them to manage them and derive their best benefits.

Thanks to the major advancements in the technological realm, you now have several tools using which you can smartly foresee risks. Ironically, the same technological advancements have made risks difficult to identify. It is in this context Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning can help businesses. These hybrid techniques will help in sifting large amounts of data and analyzing them. So, the decision-making process in your business will improve by leaps and bounds. 

Of course, the future will see several new developments and changes that may make the magnitude of uncertainty stronger. But ML can develop, update, and improve according to the developments and changes. At the same time, experts warn that ML is not a silver bullet and humans can never be replaced.

In a nutshell, if you learn to be resilient and leverage uncertainty, it will be easy for you to shape your success. As they say, there is always thrill in not knowing the future.